基于尾涡强度的无人机与民机纵向安全间隔评估研究

为了解决无人机频频入侵机场净空，与民航客机发生危险接近的问题，以碰撞风险为量化指标，对无人机与民机需要保持的纵向安全间隔进行评估研究。分析民机尾涡流场对无人机运行的影响，利用Crow近场涡强度消散理论，得到实际尾迹影响区改进Reich碰撞模板，据此建立CNS/GPS性能环境下的纵向间隔评估模型，通过Matlab进行间隔值求解。研究结果表明:模型可以较为准确地反映民机起飞初始爬升阶段无人机尾随运行时导航性能和尾涡迹对所需最小间隔值的影响，并得到给定安全目标水平的计算结果。     

Validation of a booted finite element model of the WIAMan ATD lower limb in component and whole-body vertical loading impacts with an assessment of the boot influence model on response

Objective: A novel anthropomorphic test device (ATD) representative of the 50th percentile male soldier is being developed to predict injuries to a vehicle occupant during an underbody blast (UBB). The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a finite element (FE) model of the ATD lower limb outfitted with a military combat boot and to insert the validated lower limb into a model of the full ATD and simulate vertical loading experiments.

Methods: A Belleville desert combat boot model was assigned contacts and material properties based on previous experiments. The boot model was fit to a previously developed model of the barefoot ATD. Validation was performed through 6 matched pair component tests conducted on the Vertically Accelerated Loads Transfer System (VALTS). The load transfer capabilities of the FE model were assessed along with the force-mitigating properties of the boot. The booted lower limb subassembly was then incorporated into a whole-body model of the ATD. Two whole-body VALTS experiments were simulated to evaluate lower limb performance in the whole body.

Results: The lower limb model accurately predicted axial loads measured at heel, tibia, and knee load cells during matched pair component tests. Forces in booted simulations were compared to unbooted simulations and an amount of mitigation similar to that of experiments was observed. In a whole-body loading environment, the model kinematics match those recorded in experiments. The shape and magnitude of experimental force–time curves were accurately predicted by the model. Correlation between the experiments and simulations was backed up by high objective rating scores for all experiments.

Conclusion: The booted lower limb model is accurate in its ability to articulate and transfer loads similar to the physical dummy in simulated underbody loading experiments. The performance of the model leads to the recommendation to use it appropriately as an alternative to costly ATD experiments.     

平煤十矿底板巷穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采模拟研究

为了降低平煤十矿己15-16-24130工作面运输巷掘进中的突出危险性，基于实际工程背景，考虑瓦斯抽采中的瓦斯运移及煤岩变形等因素，建立了瓦斯抽采气固耦合模型，并利用COMSOL Multiphysics软件对平煤十矿己15-16煤层的底板巷穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采方案进行数值模拟，研究了瓦斯抽采对于降低掘进过程中突出危险性的影响。研究结果表明:在己18煤层开挖底板巷对己15-16煤层进行穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采，瓦斯抽采180 d后，己15-16-24130工作面运输巷附近煤层残余瓦斯压力及瓦斯含量分别降至0.315 MPa和3.84 m3/t；将底板巷穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采方案进行工程应用，实测抽采后的残余瓦斯压力及瓦斯含量在0.32 MPa和3.17 m3/t，均小于平煤十矿煤与瓦斯突出防治规定的“双6”指标（残余瓦斯压力小于0.6 MPa，残余瓦斯含量小于6 m3/t），可有效降低运输巷掘进过程中的突出危险性。     

不同煤层煤氧化自燃性实验分析

为研究不同煤层煤自然发火特征的异同性及规律，以淮南矿区1号、3号、6号、13号煤层为研究对象，通过自然发火实验，对不同煤层煤的自然发火期周期、煤样70℃时放热强度和R70值进行分析。研究结果表明:4个不同煤层煤样自燃性由强到弱依次为:3煤>6煤>1煤>13煤；变质程度相近的4个煤层，3煤自然发火期最短，这与煤体中硫分和水分含量高有关；13煤变质程度较高，且前期放热强度、耗氧速率增长缓慢，其自燃性较弱；4个不同煤层煤的耗氧速率、CO，CO2产生率，以及C2H4/C2H6值随煤温升高具有相似的变化规律；煤中CH4气体大量解吸出现于煤温60℃之前，煤中灰分在80~120℃开始逐渐吸热融化，解析和融化均会抑制煤氧接触并且减小煤氧反应放热总量。     

A new approach to spatial source apportionment of haze pollution in large scale and its application in China

Long-lasting expansion of haze pollution in China has already presented a stern challenge to regional joint prevention and control. There is an urgent need to enlarge and reconstruct the coverage of joint prevention and control of air pollution in key area. Air quality models can identify and quantify the regional contribution of haze pollution and its key components with the help of numerical simulation, but it is difficult to be applied to larger spatial scale due to the complexity of model parameters. The time series analysis can recognize the existence of spatial interaction of haze pollution between cities, but it has not yet been used to further identify the spatial sources of haze pollution in large scale. Using econometric framework of time series analysis, this paper developed a new approach to perform spatial source apportionment. We applied this approach to calculate the contribution from spatial sources of haze pollution in China, using the monitoring data of particulate matter (PM_2.5) across 161 Chinese cities. This approach overcame the limitation of numerical simulation that the model complexity increases at excess with the expansion of sample range, and could effectively deal with severe large-scale haze episodes.     

新形势下环境质量综合分析思路探讨

随着中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会的顺利召开,环保"大部制"改革、环境监测垂直管理制度改革以及国家"大气十条""水十条""土十条"的全面实施均对生态环境保护、环境监测乃至环境质量综合分析工作提出了新要求。新形势下,环境质量综合分析应与时俱进、开拓创新,进一步优化工作机制,加强系统分析,增强综合分析报告的科学性、规范性、时效性、精准性、客观性等,强化技术与能力支撑,更好发挥环境监测对环境管理和决策的引领作用。     

基于变权灰色云模型的江苏省水环境系统脆弱性评价

水环境系统脆弱性是水资源利用与生态环境研究的热点问题，通过研究水环境系统的内在机理，综合考虑影响水环境系统脆弱性的资源、环境、经济、社会等因素，借助驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理（DPSIRM）框架构建水环境系统脆弱性评价指标体系。在此基础上，构建基于变权灰色云模型的评价方法，对2004~2014年江苏省水环境系统脆弱性进行评价。结果表明：2004~2014年水环境系统脆弱性指数由47.056提高到63.210，脆弱性等级由“重度脆弱”演化为“中度脆弱”，并长期维持在“中度脆弱的”等级，2014年出现了向“轻度脆弱”状态转变的趋势。分析各个子系统对水环境系统脆弱性影响程度可知，影响子系统和响应子系统对江苏省水环境脆弱性系统的影响程度逐年增加；而压力子系统和管理子系统对水环境系统脆弱性的影响程度逐年下降；其它子系统对水环境系统脆弱性的影响维持在一定水平小幅度波动。     

Investigating cumulative effects across ecological scales

Species, habitats, and ecosystems are increasingly exposed to multiple anthropogenic stressors, fueling a rapidly expanding research program to understand the cumulative impacts of these environmental modifications. Since the 1970s, a growing set of methods has been developed through two parallel, sometimes connected, streams of research within the applied and academic realms to assess cumulative effects. Past reviews of cumulative effects assessment (CEA) methods focused on approaches used by practitioners. Academic research has developed several distinct and novel approaches to conducting CEA. Understanding the suite of methods that exist will help practitioners and academics better address various ecological foci (physiological responses, population impacts, ecosystem impacts) and ecological complexities (synergistic effects, impacts across space and time). We reviewed 6 categories of methods (experimental, meta-analysis, single-species modeling, mapping, qualitative modeling, and multispecies modeling) and examined the ability of those methods to address different levels of complexity. We focused on research gaps and emerging priorities. We found that no single method assessed impacts across the 4 ecological foci and 6 ecological complexities considered. We propose that methods can be used in combination to improve understanding such that multimodel inference can provide a suite of comparable outputs, mapping methods can help prioritize localized models or experimental gaps, and future experiments can be paired from the outset with models they will inform.     

供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局研究

为了提高管网地震监测点布局的准确性和合理性，基于管网微观水力计算模型和动态分级法，提出供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局模型。首先，利用管网微观水力计算模型计算管段流量的影响系数，构建管段的影响系数矩阵，并利用信息熵确定管段权重；其次，标准化处理影响系数矩阵，通过聚类迭代提出供水管网地震流量监测点优化布局的动态分级方法，对供水管网震后流量监测点进行优化布置分级评定；最后，根据工程实例进行方法实践，结果表明:供水管网中的管线分类较为科学合理，地震监测点在供水管网上分布也比较均匀，而且该模型在一定程度上消除了人为因素的影响，保障了震时管网的监控效果和日常建设的合理性。     

Climate readiness of recovery plans for threatened Australian species

The rapidly changing climate is posing growing threats for all species, but particularly for those already considered threatened. We reviewed 100 recovery plans for Australian terrestrial threatened species (50 fauna and 50 flora plans) written from 1997 to 2017. We recorded the number of plans that acknowledged climate change as a threat and of these how many proposed specific actions to ameliorate the threat. We classified these actions along a continuum from passive or incremental to active or interventionist. Overall, just under 60% of the sampled recovery plans listed climate change as a current or potential threat to the threatened taxa, and the likelihood of this acknowledgment increased over time. A far smaller proportion of the plans, however, identified specific actions associated with ameliorating climate risk (22%) and even fewer (9%) recommended any interventionist action in response to a climate-change-associated threat. Our results point to a disconnect between the knowledge generated on climate-change-related risk and potential adaptation strategies and the extent to which this knowledge has been incorporated into an important instrument of conservation action.